Leaderboard
Only Stage-3 forecasters (50+ predictions, tight confidence intervals) appear on
the public board. All handles are anonymous pseudonyms unless the forecaster has KYC-verified
and opted in to display their real identity.
No ranked forecasters yet
Once players cross 50 predictions the board fills in.
Start playing →
How rankings work — the short version
- Accuracy = fraction of predictions that resolved correctly (event happened inside your window, right event type).
- Brier score = probabilistic calibration — how well your stated confidences match observed outcomes. Lower = better. 0.25 is chance; 0.00 is perfect.
- Rank orders by Wilson-CI lower bound of accuracy — small samples get penalized, so lucky streaks don’t rise.
- Stage 3 gate: 50+ predictions AND CI-width < 20 percentage points AND at least 3 domains covered.
- Full methodology: /method/prediction-game